House Dem Retirements are Already Above the Long Term Average

Which Negates their "Everything is OK" Cope

As of today, 28 Democrats in the House of Representatives are planning to retire, or not seek election to their House position in the 2022 midterm election. I have seen a lot of cope posting by lay Democrats and the legacy media alike, pretending this has nothing to do with Bidens' low approval, a stalled national agenda, and various other social and economic woes weighing on the party like a chain around their necks.

But that is flatly misleading. Take it from the Pew tracker which gives us a very nice chart showing the departure of house members in each election season going all the way back to 1992. Twenty eight is far above the average- indeed, there haven't been this many house Dems retiring since 1992 itself- the average is closer to 15 or thereabouts- meanwhile, at this time, 14 Republican house members are not seeking re-election, which is somewhat below normal- the average for Republicans has been usually higher than that of their counterparts across the aisle.

With many months to go until the midterms, this situation could shift massively- the Republican Party is very good at losing focus, or else being conned by wedge issues and dirty deeds done dirt-expensively by their foes, and this could definitely even the odds in a midterm season likely to be marked by the first significant voter registration advantage for the GOP in quite some time. The economy could suddenly improve, or a war could begin- any of a number of situational changes in the next few months could have a significant impact on the outcome of the next election. We also have to grapple with the shifting tide of new voting laws in multiple states, and a likely-to-fail attempt by the Democrats to blockade the attempt at defortification. Adding to the uncertainty is the massive rise of independent voters as a share of the electorate.

Whatever happens in the next few months, the Democrats cannot, with a straight face, claim not to be more than a little worried, looking at House retirements.