Red Wave! US Midterms in Focus

The Wind is At the GOPs Back

We now have little more than a week to wait until election day, and the writing is fundamentally on the wall; there will almost surely be a red wave in the US midterms unless polling is systemically wrong in dozens of states, and nationally, at the same time. The question at this point is more the size of that wave- does it inundate the coast and destroy some McMansions or does the whole downtown reek of salt brine and rotting fish for a month?

Given the latest trends in polling I am inclined to increase my prediction of net Republican gains by a modest margin. For months I had guessed between 30 and 35 house seat pickups (significant), one senate seat (not so significant), and two gubernatorial slots.

But the latest slew of new polling has the GOP stabilizing with about a three point lead in the generic congressional vote, with Mehmet Oz finally having- for the very first time- a poll showing him leading Fetterman in the Pennsylvania senate race, with Walker now seemingly cementing a lead over Warnock in Georgia- significant as a senate pickup for the GOP.

Laxalt looks poised to knock out Cortez-Masto in Nevada, combining that senate win with a likely gubernatorial pickup as Joe Lombardo pulls ahead of incumbent Sisolak there.

The icing on the cake in this latest round of polls is the apparent rise of Kari Lake in Arizona, potentially blocking well-funded Katie Hobbs, who seems intent to avoid debating her verbose opponent- which could be one of the reasons she is now lagging.

While I expect there to be some, ahem, "shenanigans" in some of these states, it seems unlikely that it will be enough to stop the red wave. I think the GOP will lose one of the big three senate races (Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada) due to these shenanigans, and probably one of the must-watch gubernatorial races- the establishment is wholly obsessed with stopping Kari Lake, for example, because they fear she may one day run for the presidency.

It should be noted that pipe dreams about the Republicans taking out Hassan in New Hampshire, Hochul in New York, and similar advents, are- while possible- at least quite unlikely, unless polls are systemically underestimating GOP support.

Races that were competitive in prior months are now well outside the margin of error; Desantis, Kemp, and Abbott, for example, will all be re-elected by wide margins.

I now favor the GOP to net a gain of 40-45 seats in the house, two senate seats, and 3 or possibly 4 gubernatorial seats. That, by any definition, is a red wave.