Red Wave! US Midterms in Focus
The Wind is At the GOPs Back
We now have little more than a week to wait until election day, and the writing is fundamentally on the wall; there will almost surely be a red wave in the US midterms unless polling is systemically wrong in dozens of states, and nationally, at the same time. The question at this point is more the size of that wave- does it inundate the coast and destroy some McMansions or does the whole downtown reek of salt brine and rotting fish for a month?
Given the latest trends in polling I am inclined to increase my prediction of net Republican gains by a modest margin. For months I had guessed between 30 and 35 house seat pickups (significant), one senate seat (not so significant), and two gubernatorial slots.
But the latest slew of new polling has the GOP stabilizing with about a three point lead in the generic congressional vote, with Mehmet Oz finally having- for the very first time- a poll showing him leading Fetterman in the Pennsylvania senate race, with Walker now seemingly cementing a lead over Warnock in Georgia- significant as a senate pickup for the GOP.
Laxalt looks poised to knock out Cortez-Masto in Nevada, combining that senate win with a likely gubernatorial pickup as Joe Lombardo pulls ahead of incumbent Sisolak there.
The icing on the cake in this latest round of polls is the apparent rise of Kari Lake in Arizona, potentially blocking well-funded Katie Hobbs, who seems intent to avoid debating her verbose opponent- which could be one of the reasons she is now lagging.
While I expect there to be some, ahem, "shenanigans" in some of these states, it seems unlikely that it will be enough to stop the red wave. I think the GOP will lose one of the big three senate races (Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada) due to these shenanigans, and probably one of the must-watch gubernatorial races- the establishment is wholly obsessed with stopping Kari Lake, for example, because they fear she may one day run for the presidency.
It should be noted that pipe dreams about the Republicans taking out Hassan in New Hampshire, Hochul in New York, and similar advents, are- while possible- at least quite unlikely, unless polls are systemically underestimating GOP support.
Races that were competitive in prior months are now well outside the margin of error; Desantis, Kemp, and Abbott, for example, will all be re-elected by wide margins.
I now favor the GOP to net a gain of 40-45 seats in the house, two senate seats, and 3 or possibly 4 gubernatorial seats. That, by any definition, is a red wave.
I'm curious as to why Kari Lake's old TV station had a banner showing a Katie Hobbs victory, 12 days before the election......Shenanigans, you say? No shit, says I.
The U.S. State Dept. has been infested with communists since WW1 and Woodrow Wilson, they tried to steal the Russian elections for their comrades in the Russian Communist Party through non-profit n.g.o.s… just like at home in America… But Vladimir Putin defeated them, so they launched a fággot jihad against the Russian Orthodox church over the punk rock band and the Olympics (something Bítch Romney stupidly piled onto). Miss neo-kabbalah lesbian Madonna, now rumored to be a Muslim convert, was flown in to agitate while Hillary was on a world-wide gay pride tour.
When the Iron Curtain fell down the Bolshevik Jews all fled to the other side because they knew what the Russians would do to them after 100 years of communism. The best thing about Russia getting Crimea back… Catherine the Great took it from the Turks… What happened right after Russia retook Crimea? The Russian FSB searched all the Turks living there… Why? Because NATO sponsors Islamist terrorism when it suits them to… NATO = North Atlantic Terrorist Organization
The Podesta Group was paying Hosni Mubarak about 1.3 million dollars a year, they also rigged the Egyptian election for the Muslim Brotherhood’s now deposed Mohammed Morsi… reactions to the subsequent crack down on non-profit N.G.O.s by both the Egyptian and Russian governments should have been enough to implicate the real election hackers… HINT: they weren’t Russian.
The EUSSR needed Libya’s oil, but Muammar Gadhafi decided he wanted gold instead of worthless fiat currency from the EU… What was the first thing NATO did when Gaddafi was deposed besides stealing all of Libya’s gold? Form a new government? NOPE, they formed a new Libyan national bank. Now, why would they do that? Because even if Muammar was deposed, he and his heirs would still be the sole proprietors!
And while Leon Puñettas (sic) was busy with gay pride celebrations at the Pentagon, three Navy Seals and a U.S. ambassador were murdered, all because everyone was being so fúcking gay.