Lies, Damn Lies, and Biden Approval Polling
What's the Real Number?
Over the last 48 hours the legacy media has been popping digital champagne and celebrating their latest "success"- conning a large part of the population into thinking Joe Biden has 63% approval among voters. As I will explain, this is, if not outright push polling, at least the result of a grievously bad polling methodology. One which led to multiple mental breakdowns during the 2016 election. Lest we forget, Hillary Clinton got drunk that night and couldn't even concede until the following day, having lackey Podesta come out to tell the assembled crowd at Hillary HQ to go get some sleep.
One of the greatest things about the internet is that we can compare notes from different polling firms. I use Real Clear Politics- although their aggregated total is no longer meaningful- keep in mind the aggregate involves polling firms known to be deeply problematic.
The clear and simple fact is this- and it is based on relatively basic statistical knowledge- if you have two entirely separate groupings of poll results that are separated by multiple margins of error, they simply cannot both be true. But that is exactly what we see; a scatter-shot of polls showing Biden at, respectively, +17, +20, and +19, in the latest polling period since May began, and a separate scatter-shot consisting of Rasmussen and Yougov, respectively at +4 and +3. The full results as of today are archived for the world to see on a rolling basis. In the latter case, with Yougov, his approval is only at 49%. If we study the margins of error in these five polls, it is within the historic norm, that being between 3 and 4 points. But if we add four points to the lower aggregate (50/50 approval, that is, zero) and subtract 4 points from the higher aggregate (approval of +18.6) the numbers still don't add up. In fact, the difference itself is beyond an additional standard deviation of 3.5 or so. It is perhaps worth noting that few polling firms seem to mention the party affiliation of those in their samples anymore, at least on the releases they post on their own sites. It almost seems like they're hiding something.
It can be hard to tell; big tech firms have deliberately made it harder to find the raw data needed to determine if each poll is even worth aggregating. Virtually none of the polling firms, anymore, even disclose the party affiliation of respondents in their sample sizes.
Hey styx, veeh here.
Do you geniuenly think it matters at this point how much people approve? Look in France for example with the yellow vests, they were in the street for 2 years and nothing happened.
I believed epstein would be a major scandal giving how both journalists on the left and right were bewieldered by the suicide and demanded answers.
I thought Corona would wake people up on the problems with having manufacturing based mostly in China, and the democrats would never recover after encouraging people to party in China town or else they are bigots. And how they frowned at trump for closing the border with China.
At this point I wonder if the system is not so corrupt and people so complacent that significant change is next to impossible
In my opinion, pollsters and journalists have lost all credibility. I think they have destroyed the trust of the American people to their own detriment.